Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Install
Bank of Russia rate decision in December (Dec 18, 2026 meeting)
The odds
79%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate79%▲ 3
- Cut 1-25bps15%▼ 3
- Hike more than 25bps2%
- Hike 1-25bps2%
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 60% on Oct 23, 79% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 11 PM ETMaintain current rate: 63% → 69%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 79% | ▲ 3 | 78¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 3.3K |
| Cut 1-25bps | 15% | ▼ 3 | 13¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 606 |
| Hike more than 25bps | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.1K | |
| Hike 1-25bps | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 52.00 | |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 214 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Russia rate decision in December (Dec 18, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 79%Polymarket 82%3 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
Search ›- Russia Recruiting Abducted Ukrainian Children Into Army, Zelensky SaysNov 06, 2026 at 06:07 AM EST Nov 06, 2026 at 08:29 AM EST Russia has recruited abducted Ukrainian children into its army, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. Kyiv says Russia has taken more than 20,000 Ukrainian children from…
- Zelensky ‘thankful’ for Melania Trump’s Russia-Ukraine peace efforts | CNNUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells CNN's Jake Tapper he is "thankful" for first lady Melania Trump's ceasefire efforts, specifically her White House event between both Russian and Ukrainian officials. The Metropolitan Police…
- Russia preparing major attack against Ukraine's bridges, critical infrastructure, Zelensky warnsIntelligence reports indicate that Russia is preparing to launch a large-scale attack against Ukraine's critical infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in his evening address on Nov. 6. The warning follows a barrage of Russian…
- BBC Audio | Weekend | Ukraine-Russia talksRepresentatives from Ukraine and Russia are due to meet in Abu Dhabi next week to discuss ways to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Also on the programme: Fiji’s climate negotiator, Sivendra Michael on the ... Available for 29 days…
- Ukrainian President Zelensky reacts to US midterm election results | CNN PoliticsUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN's Jake Tapper Friday that Ukraine is counting on "even more support" from the US after Democrats took control of both the House and Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections. President Donald…
- Putin's secret space war? Inside Russia’s terrifying plot to blind the west and Ukraine | Zelensky | VideosHindustan Times Putin's secret space war? Inside Russia’s terrifying plot to blind the west and Ukraine | Zelensky Is Russia testing a potential anti-satellite capability by manoeuvring its spacecraft dangerously close to Western…
- Ukraine war briefing: Beijing confirms historic Xi-Trump-Putin meeting under discussionThe Guardian Ukraine war briefing: Beijing confirms historic Xi-Trump-Putin meeting under discussion Russia could use tri leader summit to nudge China and US closer to its position on Ukraine, experts say. What we know on day 1,718 Beijing…
- Putin says it has no details of Trump's "beautiful" deal on Ukraine warNov 06, 2026 at 11:41 AM EST The Kremlin has played down the prospect of a deal President Donald Trump has teased about the Ukraine war. Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the Kremlin had "no details" about Trump's…
- Russia targets emergency crews at the site of a deadly strike in southern UkraineBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A Russian drone has…
- Russian ballistic missiles slam Kyiv as Northern Bridge damaged, 5 people injured, including child, after Zelensky's warningSeveral waves of Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv overnight on Nov. 6-7, just hours after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia was preparing another large-scale infrastructure attack. At least five people in the city of Kyiv…
- Hundreds of thousands left without power in Ukraine after Russian strikes, authorities sayNovember 8, 2026 / 6:20 AM EST / CBS/AFP Hundreds of thousands of people were left without power after Russian strikes hit Ukraine's energy infrastructure, authorities said on Sunday. In the central Dnipropetrovsk region, "more than…
- Trump says he met with Putin envoy, sees Ukraine deal soonPresident Donald Trump said he met privately on Thursday with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envoy after the Russian official appeared with representatives from Ukraine at a White House event organized by first lady Melania Trump…
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77%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps77%▲ 2
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions