When will a Democrat win a 2028 pledged delegate majority?

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Sep 1, 2028 · prices read 11 h ago

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The odds

Jun 10, 2028even chance by
  • Before Apr 1, 202813%
  • Before May 1, 202826%▲ 1
  • Before Jun 1, 202843%▲ 1
  • Before Jul 1, 202869%▲ 1
  • Before Sep 1, 202873%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Apr 1, 2028: 13% on Nov 7, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Apr 1, 2028 13% 8¢ 17¢ $5.88
Before May 1, 2028 26% ▲ 1 21¢ 30¢ $3.33
Before Jun 1, 2028 43% ▲ 1 38¢ 47¢ $2.13
Before Jul 1, 2028 69% ▲ 1 64¢ 73¢ $1.37
Before Sep 1, 2028 73% ▲ 1 68¢ 77¢ $1.30

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Democrat

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  • Democrats’ disastrous ideas to ‘fix’ Social SecurityNew York Post · 25 h agoWatch out: Democrats’ big ideas for “saving” Social Security — now set to go bust in 2032 — range from lunacy like boosting payouts to madness like job-killing tax hikes. The program’s trust fund empties out in just six years, forcing…
  • Inside progressive Democrats' push to bypass Electoral CollegeFox News · 18 h agoTom Del Beccaro discusses the new wave of progressive Democrats arriving in Washington, D.C., and their efforts to bypass the Electoral College by 2028. He analyzes the long-term political strategy and its impact. Inside progressive…
  • Incoming Democrats skeptical of Chuck Schumer as leadercnn.com · 22 h agoChuck Schumer is confident he’ll continue leading Senate Democrats after they captured the chamber’s majority in dramatic fashion on Tuesday. Not all Democrats are so sure. CNN’s Patrick Svitek reports. Incoming Democrats skeptical…
  • Trump casts doubt on Democrats’ historic midterm winsThe Washington Post · 11 h agoNearly a week after Democrats decisively took back the House and Senate majorities in the midterms, President Donald Trump is casting doubt on the results. “Does anybody really believe that this ‘Election’ was honest. How could the Polls…
  • Democrats pledge ‘aggressive’ oversight agenda of TrumpWashington Examiner · 35 h agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
  • Progressive Democrats push anti-ICE agenda after midterm winsFox News · 18 h agoVictims of Immigration Crime Director Joe Abraham joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the impact of progressive Democrats pushing to abolish ICE and limiting cooperation with immigration enforcement. Progressive Democrats push anti-ICE…
  • Democrats won big. Can they lower your grocery bill?NPR · 19 h agoA supporter holds a sign during a campaign rally for Democratic Senate candidate Dr. Annie Andrews in Myrtle Beach, S.C., on Nov. 1. Andrews defeated her Republican opponent, Sen. Darline Graham. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty…
  • Democrats' post-midterm agenda EXPOSED amid impeachment talkFox News · 30 h agoFox News contributor Johnny 'Joey' Jones and other panelists join 'The Big Weekend Show' to discuss the Democrats' post-midterm priorities. Democrats' post-midterm agenda EXPOSED amid impeachment talk Fox News contributor Johnny 'Joey'…
  • Democrats Win More Statewide Georgia Elections After 20-Year WaitNewsweek · 11 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 10:40 AM EST Georgia Democrats seized control of the state’s powerful Public Service Commission for the first time in nearly three decades last week, promising radical change. The commission, which is responsible for…
  • Democrats' midterm victories open path to bypass Electoral CollegeFox News · 30 h agoFox News national correspondent Bryan Llenas joins ‘Fox Report’ to discuss the Democrats' post-midterm agenda. Democrats' midterm victories open path to bypass Electoral College Fox News national correspondent Bryan Llenas joins ‘Fox…
  • Top House Democrat 'a hard yes' on impeaching HegsethBBC News · 33 h agoHakeem Jeffries, the Democratic minority leader in Congress who is posed to become House speaker The lawmaker in pole position to lead the US House of Representatives after Democrats take control of Congress in January has said he is "a…
  • Newly elected Democrats, Republicans make their way to DCFox News · 34 h agoFox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports on incoming representatives. Fox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports on incoming representatives, including ... Newly elected Democrats, Republicans…

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All president 2028 ›
Elections › President 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

28%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff28%▲ 2
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
  • Gavin Newsom9%▼ 2
54 more
  • Pete Buttigieg6%
  • Kamala Harris5%▼ 1
  • Josh Shapiro5%
  • Andy Beshear4%
  • Raphael Warnock4%
  • Ro Khanna3%
  • Wes Moore2%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • James Talarico2%▼ 1
  • J.B. Pritzker2%
  • Abdul El-Sayed1%
  • Rahm Emanuel1%
  • Chelsea Clinton1%▲ 1
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer1%
  • Cory Booker1%
  • Roy Cooper1%
  • Shawn Fain1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Jon Stewart<1%
  • Hillary Clinton<1%
  • Bernie Sanders<1%
  • Chris Murphy<1%
  • Chris Van Hollen<1%
  • Stephen A. Smith<1%
  • Mark Cuban<1%
  • Gina Raimondo<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Jared Polis<1%
  • Barack Obama<1%
  • Phil Murphy<1%
  • Hunter Biden<1%
  • Jasmine Crockett<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Mitch Landrieu<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • MrBeast<1%
  • Oprah Winfrey<1%
  • John Fetterman<1%
  • Liz Cheney<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • George Clooney<1%
  • Andrew Yang<1%
  • Beto O’Rourke<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Graham Platner<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Adam Hamilton<1%
  • Scott Colom<1%
Elections › President 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

18%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff18%
  • JD Vance17%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
55 more
  • Marco Rubio9%
  • Gavin Newsom8%
  • Ron DeSantis5%▼ 1
  • Kamala Harris3%▼ 1
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Josh Shapiro3%
  • Andy Beshear2%
  • Thomas Massie2%
  • Tucker Carlson2%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Raphael Warnock1%
  • James Talarico1%
  • Wes Moore1%
  • Mark Kelly1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • Abdul El-Sayed1%
  • JB Pritzker1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Ted Cruz1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Donald Trump Jr.<1%
  • Rahm Emanuel<1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Jamie Dimon<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Stephen Smith<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Jalen Brunson<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
  • James Fishback<1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

31%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance31%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio20%▼ 1
  • Ron DeSantis15%
40 more
  • Tucker Carlson4%
  • John McEntee4%
  • Ted Cruz3%
  • Thomas Massie3%
  • Glenn Youngkin2%
  • Brian Kemp2%
  • Donald Trump Jr.2%
  • Nikki Haley1%
  • Byron Donalds1%
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Josh Hawley1%
  • Rand Paul1%
  • Joe Kent1%
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene1%
  • Tom Cotton1%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Katie Britt<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Elise Stefanik<1%
  • Kristi Noem<1%
  • Mike Pence<1%
  • Steve Bannon<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • Erika Kirk<1%
  • Matt Gaetz<1%
  • John Thune<1%
  • Tom Brady<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions