Will Mark Kelly announce a presidential run? (2028 President of the United States race)

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Oct 1, 2027 · $25 today · $1.2K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

Feb 15, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 20273%▼ 7
  • Before Feb 1, 202741%▼ 6
  • Before Mar 1, 202760%▼ 1
  • Before Apr 1, 202765%▼ 3
  • Before May 1, 202773%▼ 1
  • Before Jun 1, 202774%▼ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202778%▼ 2
  • Before Oct 1, 202784%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Apr 1, 2027: 61% on Nov 7, 65% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 7, 11 PM ETBefore Apr 1, 2027: 61% → 68%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027 3% ▼ 7 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 505
Before Feb 1, 2027 41% ▼ 6 37¢ 45¢ $2.22 225
Before Mar 1, 2027 60% ▼ 1 58¢ 62¢ $1.61 448
Before Apr 1, 2027 65% ▼ 3 61¢ 69¢ $1.45 756
Before May 1, 2027 73% ▼ 1 71¢ 75¢ $1.33 296
Before Jun 1, 2027 74% ▼ 2 70¢ 78¢ $1.28 200
Before Jul 1, 2027 78% ▼ 2 73¢ 82¢ $1.22
Before Oct 1, 2027 84% ▼ 1 79¢ 88¢ $1.14

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mark Kelly

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions