North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory
13%Smith, 1+ pts
-19
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Alaska Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
2%Dan Sullivan, 2+ pts
012
How the odds have moved
Dan Sullivan, 2+ pts: 13% on Oct 22, 2% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 12 PM ETDan Sullivan, 2+ pts: 13% → 20%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan, 2+ pts | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | 30.6K |
| Dan Sullivan, 4+ pts | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | 18.0K | |
| Dan Sullivan, 6+ pts | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 7.1K | |
| Dan Sullivan, 8+ pts | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 10.4K | |
| Dan Sullivan, 10+ pts | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 12.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska Senate
Search ›- GOP alleges spoiler scheme in Alaska Senate raceFox Business GOP alleges spoiler scheme in Alaska Senate race 'Fox & Friends Weekend' co-host Charlie Hurt joins 'Kudlow' to discuss the 'Decoy Dan' controversy in Alaska and the GOP's next steps. 'Fox & Friends Weekend' co-host Charlie…
- Alaska Senate race tightens as 'Decoy Dan' scandal remains under speculationFox News Alaska Senate race tightens as 'Decoy Dan' scandal remains under speculation Tennessee Governor-elect Marsha Blackburn discusses the Alaska Senate race and the controversial 'Decoy Dan' scheme. Tennessee Governor-elect Marsha…
- Trump declares Alaska Senate race ‘OVER’ and claims Republican wonPresident Trump declared the Senate race in Alaska “over” and his favored candidate Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) the winner — even though the outcome of his race against former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) was far from certain. Trump has…
- Alaska Senate race remains too close to callFox News correspondent Matt Finn and Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy join ‘America Reports’ to discuss the razor-thin Alaska Senate race between Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola. Alaska Senate race remains too close to call Fox…
- Why the Alaska Senate race could take a whileCNN Why the Alaska Senate race could take a while With just over 600 votes separating Democrat Mary Peltola and Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaskan Senate race, CNN's Kyung Lah analyses why the race may take weeks to decide.
- Alaska Senate candidate ‘Decoy Dan’ Sullivan has intimate ties to Mary Peltola donorWASHINGTON — “Decoy Dan” is in bed with the opposition. Elusive Alaska Senate candidate Daniel J. Sullivan, who ran in the midterms as a Republican against an incumbent who shares his name, is married to a woman who donates to Democrats —…
- FBI agents served an Alaska Senate candidate with a subpoena just days before election dayDays before the midterms, federal prosecutors ordered Gerald Heikes, a longshot Senate hopeful in Alaska, to appear before a grand jury with any records he has related to political groups and other candidates in the race, according to…
- Alaska Senate battle still too close to call as DOJ's 'decoy Dan' challenge lingersFox News Alaska Senate battle still too close to call as DOJ's 'decoy Dan' challenge lingers Former DOJ chief of staff Chad Mizelle discusses the Alaska Senate race, the 'Decoy Dan' controversy and reports that Supreme Court Justice Samuel…
- Mississippi, Alaska Senate races still up in the air, results may bolster Democratic blue waveCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. MS, AK Senate races…
- Alaska Senate race still undecided, Peltola and Sullivan separated by narrow marginCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Latest on Alaska…
- What's next as Mississippi, Alaska Senate races still too close to callCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. What's next in…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions