North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory
13%Smith, 1+ pts
-19
Install
California's 7th District margin of victory (2026)
The odds
5.63median
-224
Median 5.63
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.30 on Oct 21, 5.63 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doris Matsui, 1+ pts | 67% | 67¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 45.00 | |
| Doris Matsui, 4+ pts | 60% | ▼ 1 | 59¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 615 |
| Doris Matsui, 12+ pts | 13% | 74¢ | $1.35 | 250 | ||
| Doris Matsui, 16+ pts | 6% | 74¢ | $1.35 | 50.00 | ||
| Doris Matsui, 20+ pts | 6% | 74¢ | $1.35 | 250 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California
Search ›- California voters approve $25B home loan plan under Prop 37California voters approve a $25 billion dollar home loan plan under Prop 37. 'The Big Money Show' breaks down the eligibility requirements, which include earning up to twice an area's median income. The panel debates whether this…
- How Medicaid affected one California House raceA Republican in California's Central Valley fended off challengers for years. But his district had a lot of people on Medicaid, and he lost by a large margin this time. How Medicaid affected one California House race A Republican in…
- California to force gym buffs to show ID to buy popular fitness supplementCalifornia will begin restricting the sale of muscle-building and weight-loss supplements to minors next year, including creatine supplements marketed for that end. Under the new law, retailers will have to request identification from…
- Father of Polly Klaas calls out Newsom's decision to commute all California death sentencesMarc Klaas, father of Polly Klaas, joins 'America's Newsroom' to react to California Gov. Gavin Newsom's announcement to commute all 548 death sentences in the state to life without parole, sparking intense debate over justice. Father of…
- Proposition 43 rejected by California voters, AP projectsUpdated on: November 8, 2026 / 3:29 PM PST / CBS LA California voters have rejected Proposition 43, the ballot measure aimed at making it harder to enact local tax measures, AP projects. Prop 43 would have made it harder to increase local…
- California waterfront grocery store to be demolished after 67-year run, ending battle over 848 homes projectOne of San Francisco’s most famous waterfront grocery stores is heading to the wrecking ball after nearly seven decades, clearing the path for hundreds of new apartments following a fiery neighborhood war. City planning officials have…
- Could outgoing California Gov. Gavin Newsom run for President?Gov. Gavin Newsom, who will leave office as California governor in January, is among the possible Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential election. LA Times California Politics Editor Phil Willon talks about the possibility. Could…
- Where California’s Next Governor Stands On Death PenaltyNov 09, 2026 at 08:48 AM EST California Governor Gavin Newsom has announced plans to convert every death sentence to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole, putting the spotlight on the man set to succeed him, Xavier Becerra…
- California faces one-two punch as voters reject wealth tax and billionaires eye exitsWayne Winegarden, an economist at the Pacific Research Institute, said the measure’s defeat may halt further departures tied to wealth taxes, though California could keep losing residents as its competitive edge erodes. California voters…
- Voters elect Jane Kim for California insurance commissioner, AP projectsNovember 8, 2026 / 11:20 AM PST / CBS San Francisco As insurance commissioner, Kim will lead the California Department of Insurance in regulating insurance companies, enforcing state laws and responding to consumer complaints. Kim is a…
- Prop. 45, measure to change California's environmental review, rejected by voters, AP projectsNovember 9, 2026 / 6:59 AM PST / CBS San Francisco A ballot measure that would have changed California environmental review process for construction has been rejected by voters, AP projects. The measure, Proposition 45, would have made…
- California’s put a hardcore socialist in charge of its broken insurance market. Now homeowners face a dangerous experimentCalifornia voters decided to put a socialist in charge of the state’s insurance industry — not even two years after fires tore through the Pacific Palisades and Altadena. California homeowners are still opening non-renewal letters…
Related markets
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California Governor margin of victory
31.4median
639
Median 31.4Middle half 30.6 – 32.2
Kansas Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
5.94median
-111
Median 5.94Middle half 5.39 – 6.49
Michigan Governor margin of victory
9.66median
-123
Median 9.66Middle half 8.81 – 10.5
Montana Senate margin of victory (2026)
11.4median
-345
Median 11.4Middle half 10.6 – 12.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions