2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Jan 20, 2029 · $164 today · $7.9K traded · $4.6K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

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The odds

13%Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance
  • Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance13%▲ 2
  • Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio9%▲ 2
  • AOC defeats JD Vance7%
  • Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio5%▲ 4
  • JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom5%
  • Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance3%▼ 2
  • AOC defeats Marco Rubio3%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff2%▲ 1
  • Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom2%
  • Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance2%▲ 1
  • JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear2%
  • Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio2%▲ 1
20 more
  • JD Vance defeats AOC2%
  • Marco Rubio defeats AOC2%
  • James Talarico defeats JD Vance2%▲ 1
  • JD Vance defeats James Talarico2%
  • JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff2%
  • Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance2%
  • Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance2%▼ 1
  • JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris2%
  • Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio2%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris2%
  • Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance2%
  • JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg2%
  • Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio2%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg2%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear1%
  • James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio1%
  • Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico1%
  • JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro1%
  • Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio1%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro1%

How the odds have moved

Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance: 9% on Oct 20, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance 13% ▲ 2 11¢ 14¢ $7.14 20.0K
Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio 9% ▲ 2 8¢ 10¢ $10.00 9.8K
AOC defeats JD Vance 7% 6¢ 7¢ $14.29 16.1K
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio 5% ▲ 4 2¢ 8¢ $12.50 15.3K
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom 5% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 21.3K
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance 3% ▼ 2 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 22.9K
AOC defeats Marco Rubio 3% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 2.2K
Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff 2% ▲ 1 4¢ $25.00 3.5K
Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 16.0K
Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 3.8K
JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 97.00
Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 4.7K
JD Vance defeats AOC 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 10.9K
Marco Rubio defeats AOC 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 7.5K
James Talarico defeats JD Vance 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 3.1K
JD Vance defeats James Talarico 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.5K
JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 589
Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.1K
Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 5.1K
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 5.9K
Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 468
Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 2.0K
Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 2.9K
JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 305
Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.5K
Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 595
Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear 1% 2¢ $50.00 495
James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio 1% 2¢ $50.00 495
Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico 1% 2¢ $50.00 454
JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro 1% 2¢ $50.00 485
Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio 1% 2¢ $50.00 155
Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro 1% 2¢ $50.00 201

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Elections › President 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

27%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff27%▲ 2
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
  • Gavin Newsom9%▲ 1
54 more
  • Pete Buttigieg6%
  • Kamala Harris5%
  • Josh Shapiro5%
  • Andy Beshear4%
  • Raphael Warnock4%
  • Ro Khanna2%▼ 1
  • Wes Moore2%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • James Talarico2%▼ 1
  • J.B. Pritzker2%
  • Abdul El-Sayed1%▼ 1
  • Rahm Emanuel1%
  • Chelsea Clinton1%▲ 1
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer1%
  • Cory Booker1%
  • Roy Cooper1%
  • Shawn Fain1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Jon Stewart<1%
  • Hillary Clinton<1%
  • Bernie Sanders<1%
  • Chris Murphy<1%
  • Chris Van Hollen<1%
  • Stephen A. Smith<1%
  • Mark Cuban<1%
  • Gina Raimondo<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Jared Polis<1%
  • Barack Obama<1%
  • Phil Murphy<1%
  • Hunter Biden<1%
  • Jasmine Crockett<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Mitch Landrieu<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • MrBeast<1%
  • Oprah Winfrey<1%
  • John Fetterman<1%
  • Liz Cheney<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • George Clooney<1%
  • Andrew Yang<1%
  • Beto O’Rourke<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Graham Platner<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Adam Hamilton<1%
  • Scott Colom<1%
Elections › President 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff19%▲ 2
  • JD Vance18%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
55 more
  • Marco Rubio9%
  • Gavin Newsom8%
  • Ron DeSantis6%▼ 1
  • Kamala Harris3%▼ 1
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Josh Shapiro3%
  • Andy Beshear2%
  • Thomas Massie2%
  • Tucker Carlson2%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Raphael Warnock1%
  • Wes Moore1%
  • James Talarico1%
  • Mark Kelly1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • Abdul El-Sayed1%
  • JB Pritzker1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Ted Cruz1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Donald Trump Jr.<1%
  • Rahm Emanuel<1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Jamie Dimon<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Stephen Smith<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Jalen Brunson<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
  • James Fishback<1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

33%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance33%
  • Marco Rubio20%▼ 1
  • Ron DeSantis15%
40 more
  • Tucker Carlson4%
  • John McEntee4%
  • Ted Cruz3%
  • Thomas Massie3%
  • Glenn Youngkin2%
  • Brian Kemp2%
  • Donald Trump Jr.2%
  • Nikki Haley1%
  • Byron Donalds1%
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Josh Hawley1%
  • Rand Paul1%
  • Joe Kent1%
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene1%
  • Tom Cotton1%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Katie Britt<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Elise Stefanik<1%
  • Kristi Noem<1%
  • Mike Pence<1%
  • Steve Bannon<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • Matt Gaetz<1%
  • John Thune<1%
  • Tom Brady<1%
  • Erika Kirk<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions