Will Trump's first 2028 endorsee lose the GOP nomination?

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 For Sep 1, 2028 · $83 traded · $83 at stake · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

26%chance▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 26% on Nov 7, 26% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	26%	▲ 1	22¢	30¢	$3.33	317

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump

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Trump talks midterms with 60 minutesCBS News · 21 h agoDays after Republicans faced a series of bruising midterm election losses, President Trump stood by his handling of the economy and the Iran war — but he acknowledged some "bad messaging" on economic issues and said his immigration…
11/8/2026: Donald Trump; France on FireCBS News · 22 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. 11/8/2026: Donald…
Trump dismisses prospects of a third impeachmentFox News · 24 h agoFollowing the midterm election results, President Donald Trump dismissed threats of another impeachment effort from Democrats and claimed his past two impeachments ultimately worked to his advantage. Trump dismisses prospects of a third…
Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran actionFox News · 27 h agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio defended President Donald Trump's actions against Iran on Sunday, arguing he confronted a national security threat that previous presidents failed to address. Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran action Secretary…
Trump says he has confidence in HegsethCBS News · 21 h agoIn a sitdown with 60 Minutes correspondent Ross Douthat, the president also suggested some top administration officials could be on their way out. One hour later, he announced White House chief of staff Susie Wiles would depart her role…
Trump voters are not Republican voters: Reince PriebusFox News · 23 h agoFormer White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus analyzes the Republican performance after the 2026 midterms on 'Sunday Night in America.' ... Trump voters are not Republican voters: Reince Priebus Former White House Chief of Staff Reince…
Extended Interview: President Trump on 60 MinutesCBS News · 26 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Extended Interview…
Democrats pledge ‘aggressive’ oversight agenda of TrumpWashington Examiner · 32 h agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Mamdani reflects on 'productive' relationship with TrumpFox News · 33 h agoNYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani discusses his relationship with President Donald Trump, calling the dynamic 'productive.' ... Mamdani reflects on 'productive' relationship with Trump NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani discusses his relationship with…
Trump on allegations he's profiting from the presidencyCBS News · 32 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Trump on 60 Minutes…
Leavitt DETAILS Trump's reaction to GOP midterm lossesFox News · 32 h agoFormer White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt discusses President Donald Trump's reaction to the GOP's sweeping midterm losses. Leavitt DETAILS Trump's reaction to GOP midterm losses Former White House press secretary Karoline…
Trump, Iran and legacy: RANE on what comes nextCNBC · 20 h agoRyan Bohl, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at Rane, discusses why Trump is unlikely to back down on the Iran War, even as he faces added pressure from the Democrats following the U.S. midterms. He also talks about the wild card…

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Elections › President 2028

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44.0median

39.548.5

Median 44.0Middle half 43.8 – 44.3

Elections › President 2028

AP calls the House by...?

>99%November 4, 11:59 PM

November 4, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 22
November 5, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 18
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onRepublican National Committee, Donald Trump, the Associated Press

MeasuredSep 1, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Trading closesSep 30, 2028 9:59 AM ET

Traded$83 (317 contracts)

This week$83

At stake$83

Followed here sinceNov 5, 2026

The rules

If the first candidate Donald Trump endorses for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination does not win the nomination at the 2028 Republican National Convention, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions