Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 6, 11 PM ETRahm Emanuel: 27% → 38%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 4, 11 PM ETRahm Emanuel: 36% → 51%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 29, 11 PM ETRahm Emanuel: 23% → 47%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Rahm Emanuel
31%
▲ 1
29¢
33¢
$3.02
$23.6K
Tulsi Gabbard
8%
7¢
9¢
$10.64
$6.9K
Andy Beshear
8%
7¢
9¢
$11.11
$41.2K
Gavin Newsom
8%
7¢
8¢
$12.50
$100K
J.B. Pritzker
7%
▲ 1
7¢
8¢
$12.99
$14.8K
Raphael Warnock
6%
▲ 1
5¢
7¢
$14.29
$5.3K
Tucker Carlson
6%
▼ 1
5¢
7¢
$15.38
$32.6K
Rand Paul
6%
5¢
6¢
$16.67
$20.6K
Steve Bannon
5%
5¢
6¢
$17.86
$25.5K
Mark Kelly
5%
3¢
7¢
$14.71
$15.4K
Ted Cruz
5%
5¢
5¢
$19.61
$19.1K
Pete Buttigieg
5%
▼ 1
4¢
5¢
$18.52
$32.9K
Glenn Youngkin
4%
1¢
7¢
$15.15
$7.5K
Jon Stewart
4%
1¢
6¢
$16.39
$5.1K
Phil Murphy
4%
1¢
6¢
$16.95
$5.2K
Matt Gaetz
4%
2¢
6¢
$18.18
$3.4K
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
3%
2¢
5¢
$20.83
$11.2K
Wes Moore
3%
2¢
5¢
$20.83
$6.9K
Cory Booker
3%
3¢
4¢
$27.03
$21.1K
Gretchen Whitmer
3%
2¢
5¢
$21.74
$5K
Gina Raimondo
3%
▼ 1
1¢
5¢
$20.41
$4.5K
Marjorie Taylor Greene
3%
2¢
4¢
$25.64
$23.3K
Brian Kemp
3%
2¢
4¢
$25.64
$4.9K
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
3%
▲ 1
2¢
4¢
$27.03
$64.4K
John Fetterman
3%
2¢
4¢
$24.39
$7.4K
Beto O’Rourke
3%
1¢
5¢
$20.41
$12.3K
Elise Stefanik
3%
2¢
4¢
$26.32
$5K
Nikki Haley
3%
1¢
5¢
$21.28
$5.5K
J.D. Vance
3%
1¢
5¢
$20.83
$42.4K
Donald Trump Jr.
3%
1¢
4¢
$23.81
$9.9K
George Clooney
3%
▼ 1
1¢
5¢
$21.74
$6.5K
LeBron James
2%
1¢
4¢
$25.00
$16.2K
Greg Abbott
2%
1¢
4¢
$25.00
$4.7K
Kristi Noem
2%
1¢
4¢
$23.81
$20.5K
Ivanka Trump
2%
1¢
4¢
$24.39
$39.8K
Candace Owens
2%
2¢
3¢
$31.25
$12.5K
Hunter Biden
2%
2¢
3¢
$34.48
$62.6K
Don Lemon
2%
1¢
4¢
$23.81
$3.4K
Donald Trump
2%
2¢
3¢
$38.46
$74.9K
Bernie Sanders
2%
1¢
4¢
$26.32
$4.6K
Kamala Harris
2%
2¢
2¢
$41.67
$81K
Barack Obama
2%
1¢
3¢
$30.30
$11.6K
Liz Cheney
2%
1¢
4¢
$27.78
$3K
Byron Donalds
2%
▼ 1
1¢
4¢
$27.78
$10.5K
Hillary Clinton
2%
1¢
4¢
$27.78
$16K
Erika Kirk
2%
1¢
4¢
$28.57
$27.6K
Tim Walz
2%
1¢
4¢
$28.57
$7K
Katie Britt
2%
▼ 1
1¢
3¢
$29.41
$26.5K
Josh Shapiro
2%
2¢
2¢
$43.48
$15.7K
Elon Musk
2%
1¢
3¢
$30.30
$10.4K
Jon Ossoff
2%
1¢
3¢
$40.00
$45.2K
Tom Brady
2%
▼ 1
1¢
3¢
$31.25
$10K
Stephen A. Smith
2%
1¢
3¢
$32.26
$20.1K
Ron DeSantis
2%
▼ 5
1¢
3¢
$35.71
$16.1K
Chelsea Clinton
2%
1¢
3¢
$33.33
$14.1K
Mike Pence
2%
0¢
3¢
$32.26
$15.6K
Oprah Winfrey
2%
1¢
3¢
$35.71
$19.2K
Marco Rubio
2%
▼ 1
1¢
2¢
$50.00
$33.9K
Vivek Ramaswamy
2%
1¢
3¢
$35.71
$10.5K
Jared Polis
2%
1¢
3¢
$38.46
$6.3K
Andrew Yang
2%
▼ 1
0¢
3¢
$34.48
$18.5K
MrBeast
2%
1¢
2¢
$52.63
$30.3K
Josh Hawley
1%
1¢
2¢
$43.48
$10.1K
Roy Cooper
1%
0¢
2¢
$43.48
$7.1K
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
1%
0¢
2¢
$47.62
$8.3K
Mark Cuban
1%
0¢
2¢
$52.63
$14.8K
Kim Kardashian
1%
1¢
1¢
$71.43
$7.8K
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
0¢
2¢
$52.63
$18K
Michelle Obama
1%
1¢
1¢
$71.43
$15.8K
Zohran Mamdani
1%
0¢
1¢
$40.2K
John Thune
1%
0¢
1¢
$7K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Rahm Emanuel, Tulsi Gabbard, Andy Beshear
'A down payment on change': Rahm Emanuel on what Democrats should do after midtermsPBS News · 8 days agoOn Election Day, Democrats are looking to do what they did 20 years ago – turn widespread dissatisfaction with a Republican president into a sweeping congressional victory. Rahm Emanuel helped engineer that victory in 2006. Now, as his…
Photos: Lynne Walz holds campaign event with Kentucky Gov. Andy BeshearOmaha World-Herald · 8 days agoTake a look at photos from a campaign event with Lynne Walz and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear Lynne Walz, Democratic candidate for Nebraska governor, speaks during a campaign event with Kentucky Gov. Javascript is required to use this…
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear rallies for democratic candidatesYahoo News · 9 days agoOhio's democratic candidates held a rally in Columbus Saturday, meanwhile republican candidates campaigned in Northeast Ohio. High pressure is set to bring a long spell of dry weather to the UK doing little to alleviate drought conditions…
WATCH LIVE: Senate candidate Josh Turek holds campaign event ahead of midtermsFox News · 8 days agoDemocratic Senate nominee Josh Turek holds "Get Out The Vote" event with Tom Harkin and Andy Beshear. WATCH LIVE: Senate candidate Josh Turek holds campaign event ahead of midterms Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek holds "Get Out The…
WATCH LIVE: Iowa gubernatorial candidate holds rally in final campaign pushFox News · 8 days agoRob Sand, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Iowa, holds a rally with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Tom Vilsack, and Sarah Trone Garriott. WATCH LIVE: Iowa gubernatorial candidate holds rally in final campaign push Rob Sand, the…
Trump's new spy chief focused on cleaning up Tulsi Gabbard's messAlternet.org · 13 days agoFormer Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard speaks during a press briefing, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 23, 2025. President Donald Trump's current Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Jay…
Andy Beshear wants Washington to act fast on childcareVox · 13 days agoThe Kentucky governor has been pushing to expand pre-K. He now says that fight should go national. The midterms are racing to their conclusion, but the presidential contest is right around the corner. As the next primaries begin to take…
Iran hasn’t rebuilt nuclear sites, according to nuclear watchdogWorldNetDaily · 9 days agoBy Francis Kapper, Daily Caller News Foundation International nuclear inspectors have detected no attempts by Iran to rebuild nuclear facilities damaged by American and Israeli airstrikes. “Since June 2025, we have not identified any…
Brooke Rollins uses her official Twitter account to blow a racist dog whistleDaily Kos · 8 days agoOne disturbing feature of Trump 2.0 has been how official social media channels have become little different from those of far-right shitposters. Well, last night, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins got on on the act. She used her…
Centrist Dems Dismiss the Progressive Wave at Their PerilCommon Dreams · 8 days agoIn the coming months, Hakeem Jeffries and others like Rahm Emanuel and James Carville may discover a growing canyon between their direction for the party and a Democratic base increasingly friendly to democratic socialism and impassioned…
Pritzker: Dems Will Hold Hearings to Expose Extent of Trump’s ‘Corruption’Breitbart · 8 days agoSunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Gov. JD Pritzker (D-IL) said that Democrats will hold congressional hearings to expose the full extent of President Donald Trump’s “corruption” and “massive profiteering” if they win control of Congress in…
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