How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? (Opening of the 120th Congress)

Kalshi Elections Closes Jan 31, 2027 · $75 today · $264 traded · $213 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

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The odds

8.15median
-125
Median 8.15Middle half 3.78 – 19.3

How the odds have moved

Median: 16.8 on Nov 7, 8.15 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least 1 91% ▲ 3 86¢ 95¢ $1.05
At least 3 80% ▲ 3 75¢ 84¢ $1.19
At least 5 68% ▲ 6 64¢ 72¢ $1.39 37.00
At least 8 51% ▲ 7 46¢ 55¢ $1.82 11.00
At least 12 38% ▲ 8 34¢ 41¢ $2.44 211
At least 15 31% ▲ 7 27¢ 35¢ $2.86 61.00
At least 20 24% ▲ 5 20¢ 28¢ $3.57 565

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Jeffries, Opening

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions