How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot? (Opening of the 120th Congress)

Kalshi Elections Closes Jan 31, 2027 · $5 today · $150 traded · $142 at stake · prices read 7 h ago

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The odds

251.3median
240264
Median 251.3Middle half 245.9 – 256.3

How the odds have moved

Median: 250.1 on Nov 7, 251.3 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least 243 85% ▲ 2 80¢ 89¢ $1.12
At least 246 75% ▲ 1 70¢ 79¢ $1.27
At least 249 62% ▲ 2 57¢ 66¢ $1.52 8.00
At least 252 47% ▲ 1 42¢ 51¢ $1.96
At least 255 34% ▲ 1 29¢ 38¢ $2.63 435
At least 258 14% ▲ 1 10¢ 19¢ $5.26
At least 261 6% ▲ 1 2¢ 10¢ $10.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Jeffries, Speaker, Opening

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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