Predictions › Elections Who will switch or leave their party in 2026? Kalshi ElectionsCloses Jan 1, 2027 · $243 today · $21.7K traded · $7.3K at stake · prices read 35 min ago
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Thomas Massie 11% ▲ 3 Lisa Murkowski 8% ▼ 3 Don Bacon 6% John Fetterman 5% ▲ 1 Henry Cuellar 5% ▲ 2
Thomas Massie: 5% on Oct 20, 11% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Thomas Massie, Lisa Murkowski, Don Bacon Search › No recent headlines name this market's subject.
125 more AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH <1% ▼ 1 AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX <1% AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX <1% ▼ 1 AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX <1% AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX <1% AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX <1% IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX <1% ▼ 1 AK, IA, KS, ME, MI <1% AK, IA, KS, ME, OH <1% ▼ 1 AK, IA, KS, ME, TX <1% ▼ 1 AK, IA, KS, MI, OH <1% AK, IA, KS, MI, TX <1% AK, IA, KS, OH, TX <1% ▼ 2 AK, IA, ME, MI, OH <1% AK, IA, ME, MI, TX <1% AK, IA, ME, OH, TX <1% AK, IA, MI, OH, TX <1% AK, KS, ME, MI, OH <1% AK, KS, ME, MI, TX <1% AK, KS, ME, OH, TX <1% AK, KS, MI, OH, TX <1% AK, ME, MI, OH, TX <1% IA, KS, ME, MI, OH <1% IA, KS, ME, MI, TX <1% IA, KS, ME, OH, TX <1% IA, KS, MI, OH, TX <1% IA, ME, MI, OH, TX <1% KS, ME, MI, OH, TX <1% AK, IA, KS, ME <1% ▼ 1 AK, IA, KS, MI <1% AK, IA, KS, OH <1% AK, IA, KS, TX <1% ▼ 3 AK, IA, ME, MI <1% AK, IA, ME, OH <1% AK, IA, ME, TX <1% AK, IA, MI, OH <1% AK, IA, MI, TX <1% AK, IA, OH, TX <1% AK, KS, ME, MI <1% AK, KS, ME, OH <1% AK, KS, ME, TX <1% AK, KS, MI, OH <1% AK, KS, MI, TX <1% AK, KS, OH, TX <1% AK, ME, MI, OH <1% AK, ME, MI, TX <1% AK, ME, OH, TX <1% AK, MI, OH, TX <1% IA, KS, ME, MI <1% IA, KS, ME, OH <1% IA, KS, ME, TX <1% IA, KS, MI, OH <1% IA, KS, MI, TX <1% IA, KS, OH, TX <1% IA, ME, MI, OH <1% IA, ME, MI, TX <1% IA, ME, OH, TX <1% IA, MI, OH, TX <1% KS, ME, MI, OH <1% KS, ME, MI, TX <1% Marine Le Pen 45% David Lisnard 14% ▼ 1 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% 43 more Édouard Philippe 9% ▲ 1 Christine Lagarde 6% ▼ 1 Teddy Riner 3% Raphaël Glucksmann 2% Jordan Bardella 2% Dominique de Villepin 2% François Hollande 2% Bruno Retailleau 1% Gabriel Attal <1% Éric Zemmour <1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% François Baroin <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% François Ruffin <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Jean Castex <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Sarah Knafo <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% Marion Maréchal <1% Natacha Polony <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1% Jon Ossoff 27% ▲ 2 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16% Gavin Newsom 9% ▼ 2 54 more Pete Buttigieg 6% Kamala Harris 5% ▼ 1 Josh Shapiro 5% Andy Beshear 4% Raphael Warnock 4% Ro Khanna 2% ▼ 1 Wes Moore 2% Mark Kelly 2% James Talarico 2% ▼ 1 J.B. Pritzker 2% Abdul El-Sayed 1% Rahm Emanuel 1% Chelsea Clinton 1% ▲ 1 Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1% Gretchen Whitmer 1% Cory Booker 1% Roy Cooper 1% Michelle Obama <1% Shawn Fain <1% Ruben Gallego <1% Jon Stewart <1% Hillary Clinton <1% Bernie Sanders <1% Chris Murphy <1% Chris Van Hollen <1% Stephen A. Smith <1% Mark Cuban <1% Gina Raimondo <1% Zohran Mamdani <1% Jared Polis <1% Barack Obama <1% Phil Murphy <1% Hunter Biden <1% Jasmine Crockett <1% Abigail Spanberger <1% Hakeem Jeffries <1% Elissa Slotkin <1% Josh Stein <1% Mitch Landrieu <1% Tim Walz <1% MrBeast <1% Oprah Winfrey <1% John Fetterman <1% Liz Cheney <1% LeBron James <1% George Clooney <1% Andrew Yang <1% Beto O’Rourke <1% Kim Kardashian <1% Graham Platner <1% Adam Schiff <1% Alex Padilla <1% Adam Hamilton <1% Scott Colom <1% Jon Ossoff 19% ▲ 2 JD Vance 17% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12% 55 more Marco Rubio 9% Gavin Newsom 8% Ron DeSantis 6% ▼ 1 Kamala Harris 3% ▼ 1 Pete Buttigieg 3% Josh Shapiro 3% Andy Beshear 2% Thomas Massie 2% Tucker Carlson 2% Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1% Donald Trump 1% Raphael Warnock 1% James Talarico 1% Wes Moore 1% Mark Kelly 1% Ro Khanna 1% Abdul El-Sayed 1% JB Pritzker 1% Ivanka Trump 1% Ted Cruz 1% Glenn Youngkin <1% Donald Trump Jr. <1% Rahm Emanuel <1% Gretchen Whitmer <1% Nikki Haley <1% Elon Musk <1% Michelle Obama <1% Jamie Dimon <1% Tom Cotton <1% Cory Booker <1% Tulsi Gabbard <1% Zohran Mamdani <1% Elissa Slotkin <1% Stephen Smith <1% Tim Walz <1% Vivek Ramaswamy <1% Greg Abbott <1% LeBron James <1% Kim Kardashian <1% Eric Trump <1% Pete Hegseth <1% Jalen Brunson <1% Abigail Spanberger <1% Hakeem Jeffries <1% Adam Schiff <1% Josh Stein <1% Alex Padilla <1% Candace Owens <1% Tim Scott <1% Mike Johnson <1% Doug Burgum <1% John N. Kennedy <1% Rick Scott <1% James Fishback <1% Marjorie Taylor Greene <1% Democratic party 98% Republican party 2% ▼ 1 J.D. Vance 31% ▼ 1 Marco Rubio 20% ▼ 1 Ron DeSantis 15% 40 more Tucker Carlson 4% John McEntee 4% Ted Cruz 3% Thomas Massie 3% Glenn Youngkin 2% Brian Kemp 2% Donald Trump Jr. 2% Nikki Haley 1% Byron Donalds 1% Donald Trump 1% Ivanka Trump 1% Josh Hawley 1% Rand Paul 1% Joe Kent 1% Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1% Marjorie Taylor Greene 1% Tom Cotton 1% Robert F. Kennedy Jr. <1% Tim Scott <1% Rick Scott <1% Elon Musk <1% Katie Britt <1% Candace Owens <1% John N. Kennedy <1% Pete Hegseth <1% Tulsi Gabbard <1% Vivek Ramaswamy <1% Greg Abbott <1% Elise Stefanik <1% Kristi Noem <1% Mike Pence <1% Steve Bannon <1% Kim Kardashian <1% Eric Trump <1% Doug Burgum <1% Erika Kirk <1% Matt Gaetz <1% John Thune <1% Tom Brady <1% Mike Johnson <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Settles on The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters
Trading closes Jan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET
Traded $21.7K (224,571 contracts)
Today $243
At stake $7.3K
In the news 88 headlines today, 131 this week
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules If Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi .
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions