The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Jon Ossoff
25%
▲ 1
25¢
26¢
$3.85
11.9M
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
13%
13¢
14¢
$7.14
10.8M
Gavin Newsom
11%
▼ 1
11¢
12¢
$8.33
12.4M
Kamala Harris
6%
6¢
6¢
$17.24
9.4M
Pete Buttigieg
5%
5¢
5¢
$18.87
7.6M
Andy Beshear
5%
5¢
5¢
$21.28
7.4M
Josh Shapiro
4%
4¢
5¢
$22.22
6.9M
Raphael Warnock
4%
4¢
4¢
$26.32
6.6M
James Talarico
4%
4¢
4¢
$27.78
10.5M
Mark Kelly
4%
4¢
4¢
$27.78
9.0M
Wes Moore
3%
3¢
3¢
$38.46
5.9M
J.B. Pritzker
2%
2¢
2¢
$41.67
7.3M
Abdul El-Sayed
2%
2¢
2¢
$45.45
8.1M
Rahm Emanuel
2%
2¢
2¢
$45.45
8.1M
Ro Khanna
2%
2¢
2¢
$50.00
7.5M
Michelle Obama
1%
1¢
1¢
$76.92
7.8M
Ruben Gallego
1%
1¢
1¢
4.5M
Mark Cuban
1%
1¢
1¢
6.2M
Cory Booker
1%
1¢
1¢
4.6M
Shawn Fain
1%
1¢
1¢
1.5M
Chris Van Hollen
1%
1¢
1¢
2.1M
Gretchen Whitmer
1%
1¢
1¢
5.6M
Bernie Sanders
1%
1¢
1¢
6.2M
Elissa Slotkin
1%
1¢
1¢
4.3M
Roy Cooper
<1%
0¢
0¢
4.5M
Hunter Biden
<1%
0¢
0¢
8.6M
Stephen A. Smith
<1%
0¢
0¢
7.2M
Jon Stewart
<1%
0¢
0¢
5.5M
Barack Obama
<1%
0¢
0¢
6.5M
Amy Klobuchar
<1%
0¢
0¢
4.0M
Sherrod Brown
<1%
0¢
0¢
552.1K
Chris Murphy
<1%
0¢
0¢
4.4M
Zohran Mamdani
<1%
0¢
0¢
10.3M
John Fetterman
<1%
0¢
0¢
5.2M
Jamie Dimon
<1%
0¢
0¢
3.6M
Andrew Yang
<1%
0¢
0¢
5.9M
Beto O'Rourke
<1%
0¢
0¢
2.4M
Elizabeth Warren
<1%
0¢
0¢
2.9M
Hakeem Jeffries
<1%
0¢
0¢
667.5K
Dwayne Johnson
<1%
0¢
3.2M
Tim Walz
<1%
0¢
3.6M
Jared Polis
<1%
0¢
3.0M
Hillary Clinton
<1%
0¢
4.0M
Liz Cheney
<1%
0¢
4.1M
Gina Raimondo
<1%
0¢
2.9M
Phil Murphy
<1%
0¢
2.9M
LeBron James
<1%
0¢
3.3M
Jasmine Crockett
<1%
0¢
2.4M
Graham Platner
<1%
0¢
4.3M
Mitch Landrieu
<1%
0¢
217.1K
David Jolly
<1%
0¢
922.3K
Mary Peltola
<1%
0¢
36.9K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Jon Ossoff wins 2028 straw poll at progressive conferenceWashington Examiner · 37 h agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Gavin Newsom’s sees dramatic shift in presidential odds after midterm electionCalifornia Post · 2 days agoCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s hopes of making it to the White House may be taking a hit after the midterm elections, with his odds of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination plunging to an all-time low on prediction markets…
Could outgoing California Gov. Gavin Newsom run for President?CBS News · 7 h agoGov. Gavin Newsom, who will leave office as California governor in January, is among the possible Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential election. LA Times California Politics Editor Phil Willon talks about the possibility. Could…
Gov Gavin Newsom’s death row commutations spark backlashFox News · 3 days agoFox News Gov Gavin Newsom’s death row commutations spark backlash Orange County DA Todd Spitzer criticizes California Gov. Gavin Newsom for issuing the largest mass clemency orders in U.S. history on ‘Fox News @ Night.’
Why Republicans should fear Georgia Democrat Jon OssoffNew York Post · 3 days agoRepublicans have a lot of things to worry about after their catastrophic 2026 midterm, and one of them might be Jon Ossoff, the newly reelected Democratic senator from Georgia. The presidential buzz had begun even before Ossoff won…
Kamala Harris Gets Just 0.6% in 2028 Straw Poll as Jon Ossoff LeadsEURweb | Black News · 3 h agoRep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) finished second with 16.6%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 13.9%, according to results published by Crooked Media. Harris’s six votes, or 0.6%, tied her for 16th place…
Gavin Newsom moves to commute death sentences of more than 500 inmatesFox News · 3 days agoFox News Gavin Newsom moves to commute death sentences of more than 500 inmates Former DOJ prosecutor Jim Trusty discusses Gov. Gavin Newsom's decision to commute California death row sentences and the investigations into Rep. Ilhan Omar…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions