San Francisco District 8 Supervisor election winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $1.3K today · $9K traded · $5.8K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

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The odds

98%Gary McCoy
  • Gary McCoy98%▲ 1
  • Darshini Patel1%▼ 2
  • Manny Yekutiel1%▼ 2
  • Michael Nguyen1%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Gary McCoy: 66% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 9 PM ETGary McCoy: 71% → 97%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 30, 9 PM ETGary McCoy: 64% → 69%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Gary McCoy 98% ▲ 1 98¢ $1.02 8.8K
Darshini Patel 1% ▼ 2 2¢ $50.00 7.1K
Manny Yekutiel 1% ▼ 2 1¢ $100.00 9.3K
Michael Nguyen 1% ▼ 2 1¢ $100.00 8.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: San Francisco District Supervisor, Gary McCoy, Darshini Patel

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  • Gary McCoy declares victory in Castro supervisor raceMission Local · 6 days agoSee full election results here → Gary McCoy declared victory Tuesday in the race to become the next Castro neighborhood supervisor. McCoy, a former aide to Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, received more than 50% of first-place votes and had…
  • Gary McCoy claims victory in San Francisco's District 8KTVU FOX 2 San Francisco · 6 days agoKTVU Gary McCoy has claimed victory as the next supervisor of District 8 in San Francisco. He said he will focus on safe streets, sidewalks and public transit improvements. He also said he is focused on small business and vacant merchant…
  • Gary McCoy takes big lead to represent Castro in early returnsThe San Francisco Standard · 6 days agoThe District 8 race was upended last month after moderate front-runner Manny Yekutiel dropped out. Early results in the District 8 supervisor race to represent the Castro and surrounding neighborhoods showed Gary McCoy with a sizable lead…
  • Gary McCoy and Theo Ellington, S.F. candidates backed by YIMBY group, win two open supervisor racesSan Francisco Chronicle · 6 days agoGary McCoy and Theo Ellington won in District 8 and District 10, respectively, for open seats on the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday evening. District 10 supervisor candidate Theo Ellington celebrates his election victory during an…
  • Election map: Board of Supervisors, District 8The San Francisco Standard · 6 days agoThe San Francisco Standard Election map: Board of Supervisors, District 8 Explore the results in detail with The Standard’s election maps. It’s a Dan-slide: Lurie sweeps another election night Sunset Dunes prevails: Prop. G voted down…
  • Ellington and McCoy on way to be among winning supervisors in early resultsSan Francisco Examiner · 6 days agoTheo Ellington, who took an early lead in the race for District 10 supervisor, speaks at a campaign rally at Hans Schiller Plaza in Visitacion Valley on Sept. 26. Gary McCoy was leading the District 8 supervisorial race, a role in which he…
  • Election map: Prop. BThe San Francisco Standard · 6 days agoThe San Francisco Standard Election map: Prop. B Explore the results in detail with The Standard’s election maps. Theo Ellington takes strong early lead in Bayview district, declares victory Gary McCoy takes big lead to represent Castro in…
  • Daniel Lurie’s legacy is on the ballot, with $19M riding alongside itThe San Francisco Standard · 7 days agoThe mayor has raised large sums to remake City Hall and fund Muni. Tuesday’s election will show how far his clout reaches. Mayor Daniel Lurie’s fingerprints are all over this year’s ballot. A bevy of propositions and candidates will…
  • ‘A difficult mirror’: Queer SF confronts consent after the Yekutiel allegationsThe San Francisco Standard · 11 days agoPanelists trace why groping and sexual assault too often get shrugged off in queer spaces, and what it would take to change that. Unwanted touching is often waved off as part of queer culture. At a panel (opens in new tab) on the subject…
  • Ranked choice voting elections & collaborative campaigning in 2026FairVote · 13 days agoThe midterm election is just a week away. In many places, that means a flood of attack ads and negative campaigning. But in cities, counties, and states that use ranked choice voting (RCV), many candidates are taking a different approach…
  • Ex-Manny Yekutiel spokesman now works at Anthropic, another S.F. political staffer at an AI giantMission Local · 15 days agoA spokesman for Manny Yekutiel — the candidate who dropped his embattled campaign for San Francisco supervisor earlier this month after three people accused him of sexual assault — now works at the artificial intelligence giant Anthropic…
  • Oh, We Got a Groping Scandal Engulfing a San Francisco Board of Supervisors Race?townhall.com · 15 days agoOn the same day the rape allegation was dropped against Graham Platner, which ended his Maine Senate run; there was another minor sexual misconduct scandal happening in the hub of progressive politics: San Francisco. Apparently, one of the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions