Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? (2027)

Kalshi Elections Closes Jan 5, 2027 · $29 today · $19.1K traded · $8.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

30%Rebeca Grynspan
  • Rebeca Grynspan30%
  • Lana Nusseibeh23%▼ 6
  • Rafael Grossi12%▲ 1
  • Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés3%▼ 1
  • Nickolay Mladenov2%
  • Mia Mottley1%
  • Alicia Bárcena1%
  • Amina J. Mohammed1%
  • Michelle Bachelet1%
  • Gianni Infantino1%
  • Macky Sall1%
  • Olara Otunnu1%
3 more
  • Sigrid Kaag1%
  • Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett1%
  • Ivonne A-Baki1%

How the odds have moved

Rebeca Grynspan: 33% on Oct 20, 30% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 30, 8 PM ETRebeca Grynspan: 14% → 22%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Rebeca Grynspan 30% 27¢ 32¢ $3.13 36.8K
Lana Nusseibeh 23% ▼ 6 22¢ 23¢ $4.35 14.3K
Rafael Grossi 12% ▲ 1 11¢ 13¢ $7.69 35.8K
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés 3% ▼ 1 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 15.3K
Nickolay Mladenov 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 6.2K
Mia Mottley 1% 2¢ $50.00 3.1K
Alicia Bárcena 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.0K
Amina J. Mohammed 1% 2¢ $50.00 5.0K
Michelle Bachelet 1% 2¢ $50.00 10.4K
Gianni Infantino 1% 2¢ $50.00 464
Macky Sall 1% 2¢ $50.00 196
Olara Otunnu 1% 2¢ $50.00 279
Sigrid Kaag 1% 2¢ $50.00 2.5K
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 1% 1¢ $100.00 2.4K
Ivonne A-Baki 1% 1¢ $100.00 802

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: UN Secretary-General, Rebeca Grynspan, Lana Nusseibeh

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions