US Presidential Election (Nov 7, 2028)

ForecastEx Elections › President 2028 Closes Jan 8, 2029 · $750 traded · $750 at stake · prices read 5 min ago

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The odds

18%JD Vance
  • JD Vance18%
  • Gavin Newsom13%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10%

How the odds have moved

JD Vance: 17% on Oct 20, 18% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on ForecastEx. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
JD Vance 18% $5.56 600
Gavin Newsom 13% $7.69 500
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% $10.00 100

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Crypto.com

US Presidential Election Winner 2028

26%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.26%
  • Jon Ossoff19%
  • JD Vance13%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10%
20 more
  • Marco Rubio8%
  • Gavin Newsom6%
  • Ron DeSantis4%
  • Andy Beshear4%
  • Kamala Harris3%
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Josh Shapiro2%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • Nikki Haley2%
  • Gretchen Whitmer2%
  • Glenn Youngkin2%
  • Ted Cruz2%
  • JB Pritzker2%
  • Tulsi Gabbard2%
  • Cory Booker2%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy2%
  • Brian Kemp2%
  • Wes Moore1%
  • Tim Walz1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
Crypto.comCloses Jan 31, 2029 · $8K today · $8K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Kalshi

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

20%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff20%▼ 2
  • J.D. Vance13%▼ 1
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10%
  • Marco Rubio9%▼ 1
28 more
  • Gavin Newsom8%
  • Ron DeSantis8%▲ 1
  • Andy Beshear3%
  • Kamala Harris3%▼ 1
  • James Talarico3%
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Josh Shapiro2%
  • J.B. Pritzker2%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • Wes Moore2%
  • Donald J. Trump1%
  • Tucker Carlson1%
  • Rahm Emanuel1%
  • Glenn Youngkin1%
  • Thomas Massie1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard1%
  • Ted Cruz1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer1%
  • Nikki Haley1%
  • Donald J. Trump Jr.<1%
  • Jamie Dimon<1%
  • Stephen A. Smith<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Hunter Biden<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
KalshiCloses Nov 7, 2029 · $57.5K today · $4.7M traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Polymarket

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff19%▲ 2
  • JD Vance17%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
  • Marco Rubio9%
54 more
  • Gavin Newsom8%
  • Ron DeSantis6%▼ 1
  • Kamala Harris3%▼ 1
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Josh Shapiro3%
  • Andy Beshear2%
  • Thomas Massie2%
  • Tucker Carlson2%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Raphael Warnock1%
  • James Talarico1%
  • Wes Moore1%
  • Mark Kelly1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • Abdul El-Sayed1%
  • JB Pritzker1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Ted Cruz1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Donald Trump Jr.<1%
  • Rahm Emanuel<1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Jamie Dimon<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Stephen Smith<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Jalen Brunson<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
  • James Fishback<1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
PolymarketCloses Nov 7, 2028 · $959K today · $737M traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

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Related markets

All president 2028 ›
Elections › President 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

27%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff27%▲ 2
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
  • Gavin Newsom9%▼ 2
54 more
  • Pete Buttigieg6%
  • Kamala Harris5%▼ 1
  • Josh Shapiro5%
  • Andy Beshear4%
  • Raphael Warnock4%
  • Ro Khanna2%▼ 1
  • Wes Moore2%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • James Talarico2%▼ 1
  • J.B. Pritzker2%
  • Abdul El-Sayed1%
  • Rahm Emanuel1%
  • Chelsea Clinton1%▲ 1
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer1%
  • Cory Booker1%
  • Roy Cooper1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Shawn Fain<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Jon Stewart<1%
  • Hillary Clinton<1%
  • Bernie Sanders<1%
  • Chris Murphy<1%
  • Chris Van Hollen<1%
  • Stephen A. Smith<1%
  • Mark Cuban<1%
  • Gina Raimondo<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Jared Polis<1%
  • Barack Obama<1%
  • Phil Murphy<1%
  • Hunter Biden<1%
  • Jasmine Crockett<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Mitch Landrieu<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • MrBeast<1%
  • Oprah Winfrey<1%
  • John Fetterman<1%
  • Liz Cheney<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • George Clooney<1%
  • Andrew Yang<1%
  • Beto O’Rourke<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Graham Platner<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Adam Hamilton<1%
  • Scott Colom<1%
Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

31%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance31%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio20%▼ 1
  • Ron DeSantis15%
40 more
  • Tucker Carlson4%
  • John McEntee4%
  • Ted Cruz3%
  • Thomas Massie3%
  • Glenn Youngkin2%
  • Brian Kemp2%
  • Donald Trump Jr.2%
  • Nikki Haley1%
  • Byron Donalds1%
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Josh Hawley1%
  • Rand Paul1%
  • Joe Kent1%
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene1%
  • Tom Cotton1%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Katie Britt<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Elise Stefanik<1%
  • Kristi Noem<1%
  • Mike Pence<1%
  • Steve Bannon<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • Erika Kirk<1%
  • Matt Gaetz<1%
  • John Thune<1%
  • Tom Brady<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
Elections › President 2028

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

94%Pete Buttigieg
  • Pete Buttigieg94%▲ 1
  • Andy Beshear92%▲ 1
  • J.B. Pritzker89%▼ 1
35 more
  • Rahm Emanuel88%▼ 1
  • Josh Shapiro88%▲ 3
  • Ro Khanna85%▼ 6
  • Gavin Newsom82%▼ 3
  • Cory Booker78%▼ 2
  • Mark Kelly76%
  • Wes Moore72%▼ 1
  • Jon Ossoff69%
  • Kamala Harris64%▲ 3
  • Chris Van Hollen63%▼ 11
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez61%▲ 7
  • Mitch Landrieu60%
  • Raphael Warnock57%▼ 4
  • Ruben Gallego55%▲ 7
  • Elissa Slotkin47%▼ 7
  • Gretchen Whitmer40%▲ 3
  • Jared Polis32%▼ 3
  • Chris Murphy27%▼ 2
  • Dean Phillips24%▲ 2
  • Phil Murphy24%▼ 4
  • Mikie Sherrill22%
  • Shawn Fain22%▼ 2
  • Roy Cooper19%▲ 7
  • Amy Klobuchar15%▼ 2
  • Mark Cuban12%▼ 6
  • James Talarico12%▼ 1
  • Stephen A. Smith11%▼ 2
  • Hunter Biden10%▼ 7
  • Abigail Spanberger10%▼ 7
  • Jon Stewart8%▲ 1
  • John Fetterman8%▼ 4
  • Michelle Obama7%
  • Tim Walz4%
  • Hillary Clinton4%
  • Barack Obama2%
KalshiCloses Jan 1, 2028 · $16.8K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions